Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Markets and the Economy Oh My

Just when is all this financial turmoil going to end?  I thought the markets might start to stabalize so I sold covered calls a few days earlier.....should have just gone naked.  On the US economy as a whole, the housing markets need to be stabalize before we begin to climb out of this whole.  There is already a glut in housing and it appears to be growing.  Not only is there a glut in housing, but there's a glut in autos, and other capital good as well.  On the bright side inflationary pressure appears to have subsided, STOP lowering interest rates FED, are you guys insane!!  Mortgage rates (and cost of borrowing for commericial loans) have somewhat decoupled from the fed funds rate already and with the glut of housing and capital goods, spending will be insensitive to loosing of monetary policy.

I hope that this whole deleveraging of the US economy will not have any profound long lasting negative effects.  Just how everything will unfold remains yet to be seen.  The worst part is that it's happening at a very rapid pace which due to the numerous corrections needed will lead to a large shrinkage of the GDP not seen in decades.  Like I said above, do not lower interest rates anymore.  The last thing that we need is a weak dollar.  But somehow I feel that people have to learn it the hard way.